Asian and Latino Population Growth Isn't Translating Into Votes Just Yet

Categories: Politics
Thumbnail image for Thumbnail image for 2179129718_716cea3ddb.jpg
via Flickr
Future voter
Over the past few years, political journalists and social scientists have pointed out a critical flaw in the GOP's rightward lurch: With staunch anti-immigration, anti-social service, and anti-reproductive rights policies, as well as hostile racially coded rhetoric, the party risks losing women and minority voters.

It might still be a winning strategy in November. Real Clear Politics' David Paul Kuhn calculated that Mitt Romney will likely win if he captures 61 percent of the white vote.

But longterm, the strategy should be especially concerning to Republicans considering, for the first time in our nation's history, more minority babies are born than white babies. Simply put, the GOP is handing Democrats a significant demographic advantage.

Of course, it is far too soon for lefties to toast to a coming progressive revolution. 

As a recent UC Davis study shows, there is a lag between demographic shifts and voting patterns. Which means that the Coming White Minority will arrive far sooner than the Coming White Voter Minority.This week Davis released the first of a series of papers from the University's California Civic Engagement Project, which seeks to compile and analyze voting data. This paper focused on Asian and Latino voting stats in the Golden State from 2002 to 2010.

From 2000 to 2010, the state's Latino population grew from 32.4 percent to 37.6 percent, and the Asian population grew from 10.6 percent to 13.1 percent. Each group's voter registration rate has not kept pace, though. From the 2002 election to the 2010 election, Latino voting proportion went from 17.3 percent to 21.2 percent, and Asian voting proportion went from from 6.3 percent to 8.1 percent.

One reason for the lag is that many of those new residents are immigrants still awaiting citizenship. So the disparity between demographic shifts and voting patters is most acute in areas with the largest ethnic populations. For instance, the largest gap among Asians is found in the Bay Area. In San Francisco, the gap between Asian population and voter registration proportion is 13.9 percent -- far higher than the state's 4.9 percent average. San Mateo and Alameda counties are also in double digits.

To be sure, focusing on the above statistics can be like focusing on Michael Phelps' silver medals. Voter registration expansion among Asians and Latinos from 2002 to 2010 far outpaced that of the general population. Over that stretch, California's overall voter registration rate rose by 13.7 percent. Asians and Latino rates each jumped by nearly 40 percent.

Follow us on Twitter at @SFWeekly and @TheSnitchSF


My Voice Nation Help
1 comments
Sort: Newest | Oldest
opposethemadness
opposethemadness

This article misses an obvious point. Our nation is being invaded by hostile, third world, low-performing, crime-prone illegals who have a vested interest in maintaining state socialism, i.e., milking the system for all it is worth through massive wealth tranfers from productive to non-productive populations.  Unless this desecration of our sacred sovereignty is ended, it doesn't matter what repubs will do/say.  They can grovel at the feet of MLK, repeteadly claim we are a "nation of immigrants,"  buy wholeheartedly into every lefty cliche about diversity being a great strength, and it still won't matter.  Large segments of the nation will have been transformed into a third world cesspit.  Detroit and the "vibrant" sections of L.A. will become the new American model. 

 

 

Now Trending

San Francisco Concert Tickets

From the Vault

 

©2014 SF Weekly, LP, All rights reserved.
Loading...