First, the bad news: Ocean Beach will likely sink, thanks to global warming. But the good news is, it won't suck nearly as bad as it will for our neighbors down in Southern California.
The reason for this is that our beach is kinda lame, according to a new study.
Therefore, San Francisco won't lose nearly as much recreational value when seas eventually rise. According to SF State economist Philip King, who just issued a report called "The Economic Cost of Sea Level Rise to California Beach Communities":
The bottom line is this: San Francisco will lose $8.4 million in recreational value by 2050 under the worst case scenario where sea levels rise above two meters.
To put that into context, the Southern California town of Cerpinteria, which has a much gnarlier,
warmer beach, would lose some $20 million in recreational value, the
study said. Zuma Beach, even gnarlier still, would lose $60 million and Venice Beach, meanwhile, will suffer a total bummer, losing $75 million in recreational value.
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Here are the numbers:
|Global warming scenario at a not-so-gnarly beach (click image to enlarge)|
|Global warming scenario at a very gnarly beach (click image to enlarge)|