Equality California Says Same-Sex Marriage Should Wait Until 2012

You'll need a new cake by 2012...

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Citing the difficulty of changing voters' deeply entrenched views on the subject, the LGBT legal organization said the campaign should wait until more young people enter the voting population, since age is the No. 1 determinant of how people will side on the issue. 

Equality California's Marriage Director, Marc Solomon, said the voting public will change 4 percent between the 2010 and 2012 elections, a small percentage that could potentially make a big difference for a close race. Also, young folks tend to turn out to the polls in greater numbers for presidential races than for gubernatorial ones, another reason to wait until 2012.

Executive Director Geoff Kors says that while not recommending a 2010 campaign, the organization would get behind the measure if it were to go to the polls next year. Yet he disagreed with those who say holding off the vote until 2012 would make the issue lose momentum. What would be a sure way to lose momentum? If the issue went back to the polls in 2010 and lost, he warns. 

"People become more entrenched in their views every time something loses," Kors said. "I understand the frustration of people who want to go back now, but I think we'd be leading them down a path I don't feel comfortable leading them down. I think it's our job as a state organization to say that the 38-month campaign path is the right path and we're able to work with [grassroots organizations] to win marriage back."

Kors says the organization's decision was based on a 100-day feedback period in which volunteers knocked on 500,000 doors across the state to talk to folks about their views on same sex marriage. The organization also talked with two dozen political consultants and the Top-100 donors for the No on 8 campaign about how best to proceed.

Equality California has opened nine field offices, including in areas that need the most convincing, and campaign directors say they will be focusing on reaching out to communities of color with culturally targetted messages in the upcoming 38 months.

"LGBT people of color organizations said resoundingly they need to do heavy lifting and work to prepare for a win, and so their recommendation is we go for 2012," said Andrea Shorter, the deputy director for marriage and coalitions.

The organization reported that while talking with people who are undecided or had voted for Prop. 8 in November's election, 25 percent showed some adjustment of their view by the conversation's end. (They didn't necessarily say they'd vote to support same sex marriage, but at least were less against it.)

"The vast majority of the volunteers have seen how slow it is," Kors said, adding that's why the campaign needs to focus on a longer-term campaign. "The conversations we've been having and TV spots have been about putting [LGBT] people's families and couples out front. Get them to the point where they get to know us outside of a political campaign."